Morgan Stanley report values Alphabet’s Waymo at $175 billion, $100 billion more than the previous estimate. Along with mind blowing valuation achieved in a short period of time, what’s interesting is the break-down of the valuation by the analyst Brian Nowak.
Nowak allocates potential $80 billion to autonomous taxi service of Waymo: “assuming Waymo charges consumers an average of ~$0.90/mile over the next 20 years and reaches ~4% of global miles traveled ex China and ROW by 2040 — shows how it could be worth ~$80 billion. This assumes a potentially conservative 12% long-term margin.”
Another $90 billion is allocated to logistics business — Waymo already has partnerships with Walmart, Peterbilt and DDR Corp, placing it in a logistic competition with Amazon. Nowak assumes Waymo’s logistics revenue will reach approximately $330 billion by 2040, 8% of global freight market.
Nowak values Waymo’s licensing opportunities at $7 billion — based on Fiat Chrysler’s example, Morgan Stanley assumes that similar licensing deals will bring Waymo more revenue in the future.
Independent analyst Richard Rowson writes about the challenges facing Mobility as a Service industry. MaaS is often seen as a solution to most urban transportation challenges, however Rowson underlines some cracks in this assumption.
Rowson writes about personalization of transportation and complexity of transport choices — like many others, transport choices are not completely rational and along with time and cost, people tend to take other factors into account. The author also talks about dangers of relying just on case studies when planning MaaS rollout, as culture and structure of various cities differs from each other significantly.
Rowson also mentions several other challenges such as infrastructure, imbalance of supply and demand and thin margins.